FXUS63 KOAX 262037
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
12Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD MASSIVE 160 KT H3 JET FM NV INTO WRN CO.
THE UPPR LVL JET WAS DRIVING AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL LO
OVR WRN MN WITH H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 220 M. THE SYSTEM WAS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH H7 AND H85 LOWS OVR WRN MN AS WELL. RARELY
SEEN 957 MB LO IS CURRENTLY JUST S OF KINL. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
INDCS THE PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH STG SUBSIDENCE OVR THE
FA. WITH THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND DECENT LO-LVL MIXING SEEING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVRY CRITERIA FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
FA THIS AFTN.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTS TO BE WIND...BUT
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR NRN CWA. FOR
TONIGHT...SFC LO OVR NRN MN MAY DROP A COUPLE OF MORE MB BEFORE IT
STARTS TO LVL OFF AND START THE SLOW FILLING PROCESS. WINDS WL
CONT TO BE GUSTY THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN OVR THE CWA WITH PEAK
INTENSITY ARND 21Z AS CLDS CONT TO DECREASE. ONCE A LO LVL
INVERSION STARTS TO FORM THIS EVNG SHLD SEE THE WINDS DECREASE
BELOW ADVRY CRITERIA MOST EVERYWHERE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE VERY
NEAR THE SODAK BORDER WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS CLOSE
TO ADVRY THRU THE NIGHT...BUT WL CONT TO LET THE ADVRY END AT 8
PM.
UPPR LVL PV ANOMALY OVR NE MN THIS AFTN WL ROUND THE UPPR LVL LO
AND DROP SEWD THRU MN AND NE SD ON WED. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF PRES RISES AND LO LVL CAA ON WED ACRS MAINLY THE NRN CWA
DURING THE DAY. 925 AND 850 MB WINDS ARE STRONGER ON WED THAN
TODAY DUE TO THIS ENERGY DROPPING SEWD. WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF PRES RISES AND CAA...WHICH DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE ON WED. THUS OUR NRN CWA WL LIKELY SEE A
LITTLE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN THAN TODAY
AND WL FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. SINCE WE ALREADY
HAVE AN ADVISORY OUT...WL HOLD WITH THAT FOR NOW AND LET THE EVNG
AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WIND ADVRY
FOR THE REST OF THE FA ON WED LOOKS ON TRACK. AS THIS PV ANOMALY
ROTATES THRU CNTRL MN..LO TO MID LVL MOISTURE WL ALSO WORK BACK
THRU FAR NE NEB THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...THERE IS SOME MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS
ALIGNED E TO W ALNG THE NEB/SD BORDER. VERTICAL MOTION WL BE
LIMITED BY A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT GIVEN SOME FORCING AND
MOISTURE JUXTAPOSED THRU THE AFTN THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH A SLIGHT
CHC POPS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT LOWEST 1400 FT ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
THUS IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL IT MAY TEND TO MELT BEFORE REACHING
THE SFC. AT THE CURRENT TIME WL MENTION A CHC OF RA/SN SHOWERS FOR
THE AFNT.
SYSTEM WL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON WED
NIGHT...BUT SOME WIND SHLD STAY UP OVERNIGHT LIMITING HOW COOL WE
CAN GET AND HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON
THURS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN CWA WHERE THE COOLER H85 TMPS WL
CONT THRU THE DAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT WL BE THURS NIGHT AND MAINLY
OVR THE ERN FA WITH SFC RIDGE ALNG THE MO RIVER OVERNIGHT. WRN FA
WL SEE SRLY WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
WIND AND CLR SKIES...SHLD SEE PRETTY CHILLY TMPS IN WRN IA AND HAVE
LOWERED GOING TMPS.
BOUSTEAD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE HOW TO HANDLE AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE STILL RAMPING UP ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE 12Z
GFS NOW HAS A TROF INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND
GEM HAVE A CLOSED LOW OVER NEB...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR TIMING. FOR
NOW HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM...ALTHOUGH EXPECT
CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
THE EXTENDED IS MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER HAVE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD
OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND AT THIS TIME...THE 12Z
ECMWF CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND NW TX...WHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS WAVE UNTIL IS TRACKS INTO ILLINOIS.
ALTHOUGH THESE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN...EITHER
SCENARIO IS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
WITH VFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL PEAK AT AROUND 35KT GUSTING TO AROUND 45-50KT AT ALL
SITES...THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND LOSE MOST OF THE GUSTINESS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS FALLING BACK TO AROUND 15KT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN THE MORNING AGAIN...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AT
LEAST AS STRONG AS TODAY OUT OF THE WEST.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$