FXUS63 KOAX 290815
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR STLT
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING
EWD FROM THE ROCKIES. TROUGHS WERE NOTED OVER THE ERN U.S. AND OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC. SOME VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS SPILLING
EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC ANLYS
AT 08Z SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM TX AND OK UP INTO IA AND
MN. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT WINDS
WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY CLOSE
TO MOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
COOLER AIR SHOULD SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ATMOSPHERE STILL VERY DRY...SO
PCPN IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. HIGHS IN THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOLD ONLY REACH AROUND 60...BUT SHOULD REACH UPPER 60S NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO
KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY. ACTUALLY...EXPANDED THESE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. GENERALLY PREFERRED THE 00Z GFS IN REGARDS
TO PCPN...BUT ITS AMOUNTS SEEMED TOO HIGH. 00Z NAM APPEARED TOO DRY.
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FARTHER OUT. FOR NOW...PCPN CHANCES MONDAY
SEEMED TO BE LIMITED TO AREA FARTHER WEST...SO TRIMMED POPS A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL APPROACH KOFK BY THE END OF THE TAF PD. H9 WINDS INCREASE TO
30-40KTS 13-20Z...SO MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS. SURFACE WINDS UNDER
10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE TO UNDER 10KTS AFT
00Z. VFR CONDTIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE PD WITH HIGH CLDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY