FXUS63 KOAX 282032
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. UPPR LVL RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL AND WRN US
WL START TO SHIFT EWD AND FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. SFC RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY FM ERN SD INTO CNTRL KS WL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO GET GOING OVER THE WRN FA THIS EVNG.
STILL APPEARS THAT WITH CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND VERY DRY DEW
POINTS THAT TMPS MAY BE SET FOR A QUICK FALL THIS EVNG OVER WRN
IA. HAVE LOWERED GOING LOWS OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT...BUT SHLD SEE
TMPS LEVEL OFF AND START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAWN. UPPR LVL SHRTWV
TROF /CURRENT MOVG INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ WL TOP THE RIDGE
TONIGHT AND MOV INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SW LO
LVL FLOW WL INCREASE WITH BREEZY TO MARGINAL WINDY CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON FRI. ALTHOUGH MIXING WL BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY
STRONG INVERSION...SHLD SEE US MIX TO ARND H9...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. AS THE WK SHRTWV TROF MOVS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...A WEAK CDFNT WL PUSH SWD THRU THE FA ON FRIDAY INTO SAT
MRNG. THIS SHLD KEEP TMPS UP A LITTLE ON FRI NIGHT...BUT ALSO
LOOKING AT A LITTLE COOLER HIGHS ON SAT THAN THAT ON FRI DUE TO
NERLY LO LVL WINDS LIMITING MIXING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO MOV
INTO THE AREA ON SUN...BUT DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE WL LIMIT PRECIP
POTENTIAL AND HAVE CONFINED TO SCHC POPS TO THE FAR NW DURING THE
DAY ON SUN WHERE SATURATION IS MOST LIKELY.
BOUSTEAD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STICK WITH THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND TRACK OF UPPER WAVE AND
SURFACE FEATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. CONTINUED TO MENTION
SOME SMALL POPS FOR MONDAY BUT ADJUSTED MORE TO THE WEST PER EURO
SOLUTION. FORECAST THEN TURNS TO PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH TREND TOWARD
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
FOBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. NWRLY WINDS
AROUND 15 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00-02Z AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE IN THE MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TMRW TO AROUND
12-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$