FXUS63 KOAX 300820
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010
.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN LARGE SCALE FEATURES
NOTED INCLUDE A BROAD FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND A
TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. 12 HOUR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE
40 TO 80 METERS WITH THAT SYSTEM. CLOSER TO HOME...JUST SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS SPILLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT 08Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 30S. STILL THINK THERE IS
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER IS
FAIRLY DRY. BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SYSTEM...
BUT PCPN AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. BEST BET FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN SEEMS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THERE.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 500 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY...WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIP INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING
WITH SW SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 10Z AT KOFK AND
AROUND 14Z AT KOMA AND KLNK. AHEAD OF THE FNT...H9 WINDS AT KOMA
AND KOFK AROUND 40KTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY 12Z. NORTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15KTS AFT 15Z...THEN DIMINISH AFT 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY