FXUS63 KOAX 301930
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA BORDER AT 18Z
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SHARP UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MEANWHILE WAS APPROACHING INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INITIALLY WILL DEAL WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND WHETHER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND TO OVERCOME VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST
MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT
PRECIP WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF DRY WHILE GFS BREAKS OUT SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS OVER PRIMARILY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW IN NORTHERN AREAS BUT ONLY
VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED IF IT CAN MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE STAYS WELL WEST ON MONDAY AS IT DROPS
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WITH GREAT LAKES HIGH RIDGING WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
RESULT IS MORE DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES TRENDED TOWARD GUIDANCE BLEND WITH NO BIG VARIATIONS
SHOWING UP IN THIS RUN.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE LOW AS SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED. 850 MB
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN -8 TO -12 C. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS A STEEP RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MID CLOUDS WL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROF APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE TURNING FROM THE NORTH TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION THRU THE PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/KURTZ/KERN