FXUS63 KOAX 062020
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...BUT NEEDED TO
INTRODUCE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN JETSTREAM
(SHOWN WELL IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
NRN AND CNTRL BRITISH COLUMBIA...THEN TURNS SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CLOSED LOW OPENING UP
AS THE KICKER OVER THE PACIFIC APPROACHES.
FOR TONIGHT...FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS BUILDS SEWD. WENT JUST A BIT
BELOW MOS FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI THURSDAY...WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. IT LOOKS WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT...BUT THERE ARE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES AND
ATTENDANT SFC FROPA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE
NRN CWA INVOF MAX LYR THETA-E DECREASE/295K UPGLIDE. ON SUNDAY UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FROM CNTRL ROCKIES TO CNTRL CANADA IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING PAC NW SYSTEM. UPPER TROF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THEN TRANSITIONS TO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MIGRATES INTO MN/IA. BUFKIT
INDICATING DECENT MIXING BY SUNDAY AFTN. WILL STICK WITH LOW/MID 70S
SIMILAR TO MEX AS OF NOW...BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP A
TAD WARMER. ON MONDAY NEXT UPPER TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES SHOVES
STRONGER ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTN. 12Z
GFS RUN HAS SLOWED THE BNDRY DOWN AND NOW IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECM SOLUTION. LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE IN
QUESTION THOUGH AT TIME OF FROPA ON TUESDAY...SO WILL GO WITH TOKEN
20S IN THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. DRY AND COOL THEN ON WED AS WRN UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF ALREADY SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED
WINDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS THRU
22Z. SFC WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS THRU THE PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM....DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY