FXUS63 KOAX 060755
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CDT WED OCT 6 2010
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY WHILE STRONG
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...CDFNT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM NRN MN THRU ERN SD AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD THRU THE
DAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z. MAX TEMPS WL
BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TODAY WITH DESCENT MIXING AHEAD TO JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. WL CONTINUE WITH LOWER 80S IN OUR SOUTH AND
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE NORTH.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD HELP
TEMPS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE PATCHY FROST
AGAIN BUT WL NOT NEED ANY HEADLINE SINCE MOST AREAS HAVE REACHED
CRITERIA OR BELOW ALREADY THIS SEASON.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WHEN STRONG RETURN FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND 850MB TEMPS APPROACH +20C. HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO HIGHER EACH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUN AND
MIXING POTENTIAL SEEMS GOOD. MID 80S SEEM REASONABLE IN THE WEST WITH
LOWER 80S TOWARD THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CNTRL CONUS LATE FRIDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF. PREVIOUS
FORECAST ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SAT
AND SUN. PCPN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND WL
ADD POPS IN THE SOUTH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...COULD BE SOME LLWS AT
KOFK...WITH A FROPA EXPECTED BY 12Z...AND THEN AT KOMA/KLNK BY
16-17Z. COULD ALSO SEE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KOFK UP TO 23K
FROM 16-20Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD