FXUS63 KOAX 042015
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
AT MID AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEST TO MISSOURI. SFC LOW PRES
WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ACRS THE PLAINS. WE HAVE AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE WITH THE BLOCKING
HIGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND MID LEVEL TROFS OVR THE WEST COAST
AND THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN
TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTH...AND THIS FEATURE IS DRAGGED ACRS CANADA
THE RESULT IS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN...AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE OMEGA BLOCK REFORMS FOR THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S AND A FEW 80S EACH DAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN THE WRN CWA AND ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WRN IA...BUT
REMAIN IN THE 40S WHERE THE WINDS KEEP TEMPS UP. WEDNESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S WITH THE
SFC FNT APPROACHING THE CWA AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE SFC FNT WILL COME THRU DRY WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETREAT BACK INTO THE 30S THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN THE 40S
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE 70S THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROF THAT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS. AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT KEPT POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SRLY SFC WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE DURING THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-20 KTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/NIETFELD/FOBERT