FXUS63 KOAX 050756
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2010
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHILE AN AREA OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE LIES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF ERN MT/WRN ND.
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS WITH
WRN LOW FAIRLY ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN US AND THE SECOND OVER THE
ERN STATES LEAVING AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS WL CONTINUE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A PIECE OF THE SWRN US LOW
FINALLY KICKS OUT INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
FOR TODAY...NRN HIGH PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS TIGHTENING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS.
NRN PLAINS LOW WL DRAG A COOL FRONT THRU ON WEDNESDAY DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT MOVES THRU BEFORE PEAK HEATING.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE THRU THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH POST
FRONTAL AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY. HAVE
BOOSTED HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH +20C.
WEEKEND WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE COMPLEX AS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVERHEAD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACK OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WL STEEPEN
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED
TO ADD SOME POPS IN AT SOME POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS THRU TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 14 TO 18
KTS BY 15Z...WITH SOME GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 22KTS AT KOFK. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10KT AND BECOME SSE BY 06/00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD