FXUS63 KOAX 271953
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
253 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MASSIVE UPPR LVL LO NOW OVR SRN ONTARIO WL CONT TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EWD OVERNIGHT. SFC LO CONTS TO SLOWLY FILL AND LATEST SFC ANLYS
INDCS THE LOW NOW NEAR 974 MB. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT CLDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NRN FA THIS AFTN. WLD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT INTO THE EARLY
EVNG HOURS BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DOWN TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND FLURRIES WL CONT TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVNG UP IN THE NRN FA. CLDS WL SLOWLY CLR AFTER MIDNIGHT FM W
TO E...BUT MODELS ARE LIKELY A LITTLE FAST IN DOING SO LOOKING AT
THE CURRENT VIS SAT IMAGERY. GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST TWO NIGHTS HAS
HAD A SIG COLD BIAS REGARDING LOWS...AND THINK THIS WL AGAIN BE
THE CASE TONIGHT. WITH SOME CLDS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT AND SOME WIND MIXING THE BOUNDARY...THINK TMPS WL RUN A
GOOD 5 TO 7 ABOVE MAV/MET. AS FOR WINDS...BEST PRES ADVECTION NOW
MOVG THRU THE NRN CWA ALNG WITH STG LO LVL CAA WITH FALLING AFTN
TMPS BEING OBSERVED IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUS WLD EXPECT WNDS TO
CONT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN WHILE THE PRES RISES ARE MOV THRU
AND CAA CONTS TO KEEP LO-LVL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.5 C/KM. THUS WL
CONT WITH THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS THRU TILL EXPIRATION.
QUIET WEATHER STARTS BACK FOR THURS AND CONTS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MIXING WL BE
LIMITED FOR BOTH THURS AND FRI TO AROUND 900 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT GOING FORECAST INDICATES. SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURS NIGHT AND CLD LEAD TO A VERY
FAST FALL ON TMPS THURS EVNG BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVR THE W. WL HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS IN WRN IA CONDS SHLD STAY
CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM THRU THE NIGHT. AN WEAK UPPR LVL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ALNG THE CANADIAN-US BORDER ON FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FA ON SAT...BUT WL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON TMPS AND SKIES SHLD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.
BOUSTEAD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HANDLING OF MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ANOTHER ONE ON MONDAY.
12Z/27 GFS SHOWING A LESS ENERGETIC SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z/27 EURO
CONTINUING ITS TREND FROM EARLIER RUNS OF A WEAKER SURFACE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LATEST DISCUSSION FROM HPC
SHOWS A PREFERENCE FOR EURO SOLUTION BUT TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
DOESN'T SHOW UP IN THE LATEST WIND GRIDS. SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WILL
ASSUME LESS INTENSE WAVE THAN INDICATED BY THE EURO AND TREND TOWARD
THE HPC GUIDANCE. SECOND WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSE BEHIND ON MONDAY AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY...TRACK AND TIMING SHOWING UP AGAIN
BETWEEN MODELS. CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS ON MONDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF MODELS. TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME MAIN FOCUS AS MAIN
ACTION SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS.
FOBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS TAF PD.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CIGS
MAY AFFECT KOFK AND EVEN KOMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD GO
BACK TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW -RASN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KOFK BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY MUCH BELOW 5SM.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ030-042>045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-031>034.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$