FXUS63 KOAX 270755
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST OBS SHOWING SUPER SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING
WITH STOUT NW WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALSO...LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
WRAP AROUND SNOW UP NORTH AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH VORT ENERGY
ROUNDING BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LATE
MORNING/AFTN POPS IN ANTICIPATION PCPN WILL MAKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NRN CWA. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS TOO WARM TO BE CONCERNED WITH ANY SN
OR MIX PCPN. AS FOR WINDS...WILL OPT TO NOT UPGRADE FROM ADV...BUT IT
WILL DEFINITELY BE CLOSE IN KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. CONSIDERING GFS-LAMP
VERIFICATION FROM TUESDAY MORNING FCST REVEALED GOOD PERFORMANCE...
PREFER TO GIVE CREDENCE TO LATEST RUN INDICATING GUSTS GENERALLY
AROUND 45MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT WHEN
SFC LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC HIGH SETTLES
IN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. FORTUNATELY CAA FILTERING INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND THURSDAY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND BLEND OF MAV/MET HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z AS WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ARE TOPPED BY 50KT WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.
THOSE STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN BY 14Z OR 15Z AND BECOME
NORTHWEST...WITH 30 TO 40KT NORTHWEST WINDS COMMON THROUGH THE DAY.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL060 WILL SPILL INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AFTER 16Z...THEN LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR FL030 NEAR 00Z.
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH INTO THE 15 TO 20KT
RANGE BUT HIGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
DEE/SCOTTY