FXUS63 KOAX 040810
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL WITH AN
H5 TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
THE FORECAST AREA IN-BETWEEN AND DOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT. H85
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS HAD NORTH WINDS AT 60-70KTS...A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE PROGS AND RUC ANALYSIS FOR THIS MORNING. AT 08Z...SFC
HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED FM MONTANA THRU WYOMING INTO COLORADO. SFC
WINDS WERE 10 TO 20KTS AND THIS HAS HELD TEMPS INTO THE 40S WITH
SOME 30S MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH.
COLDER H85 TEMPERATURES WORK SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA WITH
MORE OF A GLANCING SHOT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. H850 TEMPS AROUND
-2DEG C MAKE IT TO ERN NEB AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL IOWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TRIGGER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 40S...SO IF THERE IS ENOUGH RH...THERE MAY
BE A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOP. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPR
40S TO MID 50S. STRONG WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STACKED VERTICALLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. LOOK
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 16-22KTS GUSTING 25-32KT.
THE MID LEVEL TROF EASES EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THIS ALLOWS SFC HIGH
PRES TO BUILD IN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DIMINISHING
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 60S.
THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH A MID
LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...RH IS LIMITED...SO IT IS STILL DRY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO KS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MONDAY. THE RETURN FLOW IS STRONG...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE MOISTURE RETURN. THE EXTENDED MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
HOW THEY EVOLVE THE TROF TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME WE STILL
APPEAR NORTH OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
NWRLY LO LVL WND SHEAR WL CONT EARLY MRNG WITH LOCAL PROFILERS INDCG
ARND 60 KT JUST OFF THE SFC. AS MIXING INCREASES THRU THE
MRNG...EXPECT SFC WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN OUT OF
THE NW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT
AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WL DIMINISH AGAIN THIS EVNG.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD