FXUS63 KOAX 031945
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ABATE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD NOT DIMINISH ALTOGETHER SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S LOOKS
OK FOR TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN
THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER AS A THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS
TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OVERALL WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP
SUBSTANTIALLY...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE MID 20S REGIONWIDE. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
ON FRIDAY...OVERALL POOR MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ONCE AGAIN...WITH WITH A DECENT
RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND EVEN LOWER 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE SOME
RAIN CHANCES COME INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARDS THE END OF THAT TIME. DUE TO THAT UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WHERE NEEDED WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES FOR THIS FORECAST. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT
POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LATER
RUNS HANDLE THINGS BEFORE GETTING INTO ANY MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS
WITH FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
ONLY AVN CONCERN DURING THIS FCST PD IS LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE NW WINDS FL020 AGL WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45KT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WIND DIRECTION
THRU THE LOWEST LAYERS OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW...SO
THREAT FOR CROSSWIND ACTIVITY WILL BE NIL. ANTICIPATE SHEAR THREAT
WILL SUBSIDE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 05/15Z WHEN SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
ENVELOP THE PLAINS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEWALD/FOBERT/DEE