FXUS63 KOAX 080900
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MAIN FOCUS IN SHORTER TERM...THROUGH
TUESDAY. MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWV TROUGH CROSSING MID MO VALLEY
THIS MORNING JUST BRIEFLY DAMPENS LONGER WAVE RIDGE OVR CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT RECOVERS AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BEGIN A DOWNWARD SLIDE TO OUR WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK. FIRST
SYSTEM HAS KEPT WINDS AND TEMPS UP SO FAR THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AS SYSTEM PASSES SFC WINDS SHOULD RELAX TODAY...QUESTION
REMAINS HOW MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WARM INVERSION AIR WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SFC AS WINDS ABV SFC SHIFT TO WNW OVR MUCH OF THE
CWA THRU MIDDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WCNTRL/NW CWA STAND THE BEST
CHC OF WARMING THE MOST...REFERENCE 00Z NAM FCST SOUNDING...WITH
READINGS AT OR A LITTLE ABV SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ENCTRL NEBR/SW IA
WERE FORECAST TO BE A LTL COOLER THAN SUN. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT
TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE MOS/FCST SOUNDING VALUES...MILDER START MAY
BE ENOUGH SO THAT ADDED DIURNAL HEATING WILL PUSH MOST READINGS
ERN/SERN ZONES TOWARD MAXT OBSERVED SUNDAY. OVERALL THOUGH JUST
MINOR CHANGES THEN TO MAINLY BUMP READINGS UP A BIT. THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPS WL FALL OFF TOWARD PREV FCST/GUIDANCE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING WINDS DVLP LATER TNGT AS LONGER
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...SO LTL/NO SIGFNT CHANGES MADE. TUE WILL
BRING STRONGER WINDS AND PROBABLY A BIT COOLER READINGS...SPCLY
W...AS HGTS BEGIN FALLING. HOWEVER...INCREASED MIXING WILL NEGATE
SOME OF THIS AND KEPT TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN GUID AND IN LINE
WITH PREV FCST.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE LONGER UPPER TROUGH...SPCLY WITH REGARDS TO
WIND SHIFT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT MODEL ON WED. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE STILL IN QUESTION BUT FORCING FAIRLY DECENT AND EVEN A
LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH SYSTEM SO LEFT IN
SMALL POPS NRN ZONES. DIDN/T ADJUST TIMING YET AS GFS/GEM WERE NOW
A BIT SLOWER THAN ECMWF...BUT PCPN RISK COULD BE MORE IN 10Z-18Z
PD INSTEAD OF 12-00Z. MADE NO SIGFNT CHANGES TO TEMPS ON WED DUE
TO POSSIBILITY OF SC WRAPPING AROUND IN COLD ADVCTN BHND
SYSTEM...BUT DECENT WRLY WINDS BHD IT DOES PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL
OF A LTL WARMER READINGS IF THEY COMBINE WITH MORE SUN THAN
EXPECTED.
MUCH BETTER CHC OF PCPN LIES WITH A SECOND STRONGER WAVE THAT WILL
BE MOVING S OF THE ONE ON WEDNESDAY. DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP NEAR KS/MO BORDERS WITH QUITE A BIT MORE MOISTURE. UPPED
POPS...SPCLY CNTRL/SRN ZONES THU NGT AS THERE WAS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GEM/GFS/ECMWF. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS BRING TEMP
PROFILE CLOSE TO SUPPORTING SNOW AS FAR SE AS LNK/OMA WHILE ECMWF
WAS WARMER. ATTM LEFT MIX MENTION JUST ACROSS NERN NEBR FM PREV
FCST THU NGT WHICH 00Z ECMWF ZERO 850 ISOTHERM MATCHES UP WITH ALMOST
EXACTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TAF PD. WIND SHEAR AROUND 2000 FT
LIKELY AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL THREE SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/KERN