FXUS63 KOAX 082138
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 PM CST MON NOV 8 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE MILD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...MISSED A RECORD
WARM MINIMUM BY JUST ONE DEGREE AT KOFK. STLT PICS SHOW A LARGE
NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND 110 W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF THAT IS OVER THE WRN U.S. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OVR THE DAKOTAS
AND MN WAS QUITE DRY AND ONLY HAD A FEW CLOUDS WITH IT.
OVER THE NEXT DAY...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF OVER THE WRN U.S.
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD...MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO
ORGANIZE OVER ERN CO/NW KS. NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE IN
THE LOWER 50S AND AM AGAIN EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE...MET GUID MAY BE COOL...AND TRENDED AT OR
ABOVE MAV GUID AND MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH AND 70S FARTHER
SOUTH. THE RECORDS AT LNK AND OMA ARE WEAK ONES...IN THE LOWER 70S (74
SET IN 1999 AND 73 SET IN 1999) AND WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS
AT BOTH LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH A
STRONG H85 JET AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT TRACKS ACRS CNTRL NEB. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST NEB. THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY...SO HAVE THE
LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...AND FOR THE ERN CWA...PRECIP
MAY GET GOING JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. WITH ENERGY LAGGING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...A SECOND WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
AREA AND HAS DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ECWMF
AND THE GEM ARE QUITE STRONG WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WHERE THE
GFS/NAM/SREF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. RAISED POPS AND QPF AND MAY
NEED TO RAISE FURTHER IF CONSISTENCY INCREASES WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS FOR THU ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LEFT PRECIP
MENTION ALL LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN SWING
THROUGH THE REGION TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO AMOUNT AND AXIS OF COLDER AIR AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT COME INTO AGREEMENT
AGAIN MONDAY IN PLACING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HAVE FOLLOWED SIMILAR 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OFFER A MIX OF SOLUTIONS WITH
NEARLY EQUAL DISTRIBUTION TOWARD GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
EJECTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IMPLIES INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS INTO MISSOURI.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE TODAY...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS MORE EXPANSIVE TO THE NORTH GIVEN COUPLED
JET STRUCTURE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ALSO
ALLOWS COLD AIR TO SINK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING RAIN/SNOW
LINE INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. MID SHIFT INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THOSE HAVE BEEN INCREASED THOSE EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. A LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES STILL LOOKS OKAY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL GO DRY FOR NOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO RELOAD/REFORM TO OUR WEST. GFS IS SHOWING PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING MONDAY AS ITS TROUGH AXIS IS FARTHER EAST. IF PRECIP DOES
OCCUR...TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
40S FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/DERGAN/FOBERT