FXUS63 KOAX 090905
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CST TUE NOV 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS TODAY AT BOTH LNK AND OMA.
STRONG UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH BASE OF TROF AXIS MOVING CLOSE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME UPSTREAM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND EXTENDS CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. LEE SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NERN COLORADO LEAVING WARM AND DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING WINDS ARE LACKING...A WARM START TO
THE DAY AND S/SE SFC WINDS SHOULD PUT US IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS FLIRTS WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR BOTH OMA AND LNK. HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY AS REGION WL STILL BE UNDER SRLY FLOW FOR THE MOST PART
EXCEPT OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE CAA WL BE UNDERWAY AS N-S
THERMAL BOUNDARY SETS UP. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE COOL DOWN AS WELL.
UPPER TROF AXIS WL CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD INTO NERN NEB BY 18Z WED
WITH SFC CYCLONE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS BY THIS TIME. LARGE SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY.
SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROF ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM PLACES AN
INVERTED SFC TROF/STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE. MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO GIVE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/SWRN IOWA AROUND AN INCH OF QPF
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH. SUB
ZERO 850MB TEMPS WOULD SIGNIFY A -RA/SN MIX ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN REACHES WHERE THE LESSER AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PULL COMPLETELY OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z SAT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO THE MID 20S FROM ABOUT
16-23Z ALSO.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD