FXUS63 KOAX 150847
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
247 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010
.DISCUSSION...
AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.
WAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT CLIPPING NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS
STARTING LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING RAIN OR SNOW
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED HOWEVER. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY AS STRONGER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMOUNG THE MODELS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NAM SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. TRENDED
MORE TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION THIS FORECAST. EVERYTHING SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT SETTING UP
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTY SHOWING UP ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES
OF THE NAM AND GFS.
MUCH COLDER AIR POISED TO INTRUDE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING BECOMES THE MAIN ISSUE AS
UPPER FLOW SETTLES INTO A ZONAL OR SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD SLOW THE PLUNGE OF COLD AIR SOUTH. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
REASONABLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME BY BRINGING MAIN
SHOT OF COLD AIR IN WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH RIGHT BEFORE THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL EASTERN TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CIGS BETWEEN FL050 AND FL100 WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
NEBRASKA...BRINGING MAINLY BROKEN CIGS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
PERIOD OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR KOMA AND MAY
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. AND ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND KOFK AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN