FXUS63 KOAX 142056
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 PM CST SUN NOV 14 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MODELS ADVERTISE UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD FROM THE ALASKAN GULF
WILL FORCE STAGNANT LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS TO
BECOME PROGRESSIVE AGAIN BY MID WEEK. UNTIL THEN...GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT NUMEROUS PIECES OF PAC NW ENERGY WILL RIDE DOWN FRONT END OF THE
WRN CONUS RIDGE AS DASH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. OVERALL DO NOT SEE
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WITH PASSING IMPULSES LEADING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTN THOUGH...INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS
PROGGED WITH MORE VIGOROUS VORT ENERGY APPROACHING THE PLAINS. SYSTEM
DYNAMICS INDUCE CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW AND MAINTAINS FORCING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. PTYPE IS IN QUESTION. CAA WILL EVENTUALLY BE
DRAWN SWD ON BACKSIDE OF STRENGTHENING SFC...BUT APPEARS FROM THE
GFS/NAM THAT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW WILL NOT COME UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW WILL
BE MAKING A QUICK EXIT SEWD TWD MO. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH RA/SN MIX
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN ALL SNOW WED MORNING. GIVEN SPEEDY NATURE OF THIS
CLIPPER LOW...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY WEAK SNOW PRODUCERS...WILL OPT
FOR CONSERVATIVE ACCUMULATIONS WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING
MEAN UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE WRN US WITH BROAD SW FLOW ACRS THE CNTRL
US. TMPS LOOK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURS AND FRI WITH
THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A
CDFNT TO MOV THRU THE CWA ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT WITH THE GFS APPEARING
TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. AT THE CURRENT TIME WILL GO
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOV THE FRNT THRU ON
SAT MRNG BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SOME WITH TIME.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FNT AT THIS
TIME...BUT COOLER AIR SHLD FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR LATER SAT AND
INTO THE DAY ON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS AT KOMA...WHERE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
AND WET GROUND FROM RECENT SNOW MAY COMBINE TO DROP VIS OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A TEMPO GROUP AT 1SM FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN SKC AND BKN AT OR ABOVE 5KFT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/JB/BM