FXUS63 KOAX 170916
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CST WED NOV 17 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 08Z
WITH RADARS SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN I-70 IN
KANSAS AND I-80 IN NEBRASKA.
SYSTEM HAS TRENDED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS
INDICATED SO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF I-80 EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EAST
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TIME SECTIONS FROM THE GFS
INDICATE BEST VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THEN DECREASES
AFTER THAT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECIP AREA FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
WITH NO SNOW REPORTED AT 08Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. RAIN
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 20 ACROSS
THE CWA. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON THURSDAY AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER BUT LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPS FORECAST DRY. COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SETTING STAGE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA. NO MENTION OF PRECIP
AT THIS TIME SINCE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE PERIOD BUT SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
ON DAY 7 AS ECMWF QUICKER IN MOVING OUT THE COLD AIR. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX AND MINS TO TREND TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THE AREA OF LIGHT PCPN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS
TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLNK WITH PCPN. MVFR CONDITIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT KOFK AND KOMA TODAY...MAINLY BEFORE 18Z...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE
TREND SHOULD BE FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER