FXUS63 KOAX 172044
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 PM CST WED NOV 17 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES...ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWV ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH OR WEST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY SHOWED SPLIT ENERGY PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH STRONGEST PIECE ASSOCD WITH THIS WAVE OVR NRN OK.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WAS NEAR THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL EJECT A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS SRN CANADA THU/FRI. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WARM ADVCTN LATE TNGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE COLD AIR BEHIND IT SLIPS SWD UNDER INCREASINGLY SWRLY UPPER
FLOW AS MORE ENERGY DIGS DOWN WEST COAST. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS IN THIS LARGER SCALE PICTURE THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR TNGT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN LOW CLOUDS WHICH MODELS
GENERALLY SUGGEST AND MID AFTN VISIBLE STLT PICS SHOW TO SOME DEGREE.
IF THEY CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH WITH DECREASING WINDS
AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BLYR FOG BECOMES A THREAT...WHICH NAM
SOUNDINGS/MOS INDICATED. ATTM KEPT A SLOWER DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THAN PREV FCST/MODELS...DID NOT MENTION FOG AND RAISED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. INCREASING WINDS WITH WARM ADVCTN ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH AFTN SUNSHINE...IF NOT MUCH OF THE DAY...SHOULD BOOST
READINGS TO THOSE SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS...GENERALLY NEAR
OR A DEG OR TWO ABV MAV MOS. APPEARS SFC WINDS COULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST READINGS NEAR OR ABOVE 30 FRI NGT...GENERALLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE. CDFNT ON FRIDAY FCST TO REACH KOMA/KLNK BY 18Z AND
THRU CWA BEFORE 00Z WITH COOL ADVCTN MINIMAL EXCEPT PERHAPS NRN
CWA. FCST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORTED MAX TEMPS A LTL ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND RAISED MOST LOCATIONS WITH LTL CLOUDS EXPECTED YET
THRU FRI.
FRONT APPARENTLY WILL STALL NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NGT/EARLY SATURDAY AS IT SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH UNDER SWRLY UPPER
FLOW. AS IT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT N ON SATURDAY MODELS INCREASE LOW
LVL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. THUS INCREASED
CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND TRIMMED TEMPS BACK BECAUSE
OF THEM...SPCLY NRN 2/3RDS. DID NOT ADD ANY DZ YET TO SAT PD BUT IF
12Z ECMWF WOULD VERIFY...IT WAS QUICKER IN LIFTING CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO SERN NEBR/SWRN IA BY SAT AFTN...COULD SEE SOME DVLP AS EARLY
AS SAT.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MEAN FLOW IN THE EXTENDED HAS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A MID
LEVEL TROF OVER THE WRN U.S. ALTHOUGH SOME ENERGY DOES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK...LAGGING TROF ENERGY REMAINS OVR THE
WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEK AND
IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE RAISED LOWS TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST. WARM MOIST FLOW WILL BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 40 NORTH AND IN THE UPR 50S SOUTHEAST. THE SFC FRONT STALLS
OUT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. DID INCLUDE A MIX NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM STILL
DOES NOT LOOK REAL ORGANIZED...EARLY IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER COULD GET
A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY THANKSGIVING AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR
IS NOT REAL STRONG AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER COOLING. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT REAL CONSISTENT ON TEMPS. THE MEX GUIDANCE IS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A BIT COOLER THAN THE ECMWF.
HAVE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL
TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM 09Z-14Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/ZAPOTOCNY/KERN