FXUS63 KOAX 180900
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CST THU NOV 18 2010
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA AT 08Z WITH
SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO FAST MOVING WAVE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
CANADIAN BORDER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. FLOW
REMAINS STRONG TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BIG QUESTION
BEING HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
TRENDED TOWARD GUIDANCE BLEND IN THIS FORECAST.
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH TIMING OF COLD
AIR SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS GFS FASTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. COLD AIR
THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 850 MB EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE SPREADING
NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REFLECT
THIS IDEA WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING LIMITING TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
VERY COLD AIR REMAINS POISED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN BRINGING THIS COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH GFS THE FASTER MODEL. NONETHELESS
LATER PERIOD LOOKS COLD THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED LATE WITH REGARDS TO COLDER TEMPS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THERE SHOULD BE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS MOSTLY IN THE 3000
TO 5000 FOOT LAYER ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING BUT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER