FXUS63 KOAX 220925
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY MESSY FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH PRIMARILY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOUTHEASTERN CWFA
FROM THE OMAHA METRO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD REMAIN /JUST/ WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS ECNTRL KS THROUGH NERN MO. AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...DRIZZLE
HAS DEVELOPED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH AT LEAST 9 AM THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN END AS THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TO NERN IA
BY NOON. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER SATURATION IN ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IS HIGHLY
DOUBTFUL...THUS IT WILL DEPEND ON SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH REMAIN
CRITICALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE OMAHA METRO. INITIALLY ISSUED
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWFA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AT 1 AM...AND WILL EXPAND THIS FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...FOR THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN FLURRIES...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
BEYOND TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT...THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING AND VERY SUBTLE WARMING.
NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS
REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM...AND LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT. THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR A
MUCH SLOWER SYSTEM...WHICH REALLY PUTS OUR CWFA MORE INTO THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE OF A RAIN THREAT ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH GIVEN RECENT
SREF TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY SET UP
JUST EAST OF THE CWFA ACROSS SCNTRL IA AND NCNTRL MO. BY THE TIME
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MAY BE
NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD
BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THUS...NO MAJOR PRE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PROBLEMS...UNLESS
YOU/RE HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THANKSGIVING DAY STILL LOOKS BLUSTERY BUT DRY FOR OUR AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 09Z OVR EASTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN AND MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN COVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THROUGH
06Z TUE. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CREATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME FZDZ CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF A KTQE TO KLNK LINE THROUGH
13Z. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-18Z THIS
MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ042-
043-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-
032>034-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030-031.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
DEWALD/SMITH