FXUS63 KOAX 222100
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH TEMPERATURES THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING
TENDENCY FOR LOW CLOUDS TO ERODE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DECREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WINDY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL
STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE PRIMARY MOISTURE AXIS IS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST AS
TIMING ISSUES RELATED TO THE FRONT WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT DAY. RATHER MILD CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE COLDEST
AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PRODUCING SUBZERO WIND CHILLS
IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS IN THE
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE MOVG INTO THE ERN HALF OF
THE US WITH AN UPPR LVL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE WRN AND
THEN CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION OVR THE WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVR
THE REGION ON FRI MRNG WL ALLOW FOR SOME PRETTY CHILLY TMPS...BUT A
QUICK RECOVERY IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES
ACRS THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND MODELS THE DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ENERGY MOVG INTO THE WRN US. ATTM CURRENTLY
PREFER A DEAMPLIFIED EC SOLUTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE NEW 12Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE FM THE GEM AND UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL US MEMBERS
FM THE NAEFS. THIS WLD ALLOW FOR A SYSTEM TO START TO EMERGE ONTO
THE PLAINS ON DAY 7...AND MORE LIKELY JUST PAST THE EXTNDD PERIOD.
THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST ATTM...WITH COOLER TMPS FOR MON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP JUST PAST THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY COVERING ERN NEB THIS AFTN...AND MAIN
ISSUE IS TIMING CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. 21/19Z VIS SATL PIX
SHOWING BACK EDGE OF ST DECK GENERALLY KVTN-KODX-KHSI. CLEARING LINE
PROGRESSING EWD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP...AND ESTIMATE CIGS IMPROVING
AT ALL TERMINALS FROM MVFR TO VFR COND AROUND 22/01Z. VFR THEN REST
OF FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/BOUSTEAD/DEE