FXUS63 KOAX 232129
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR SCENARIO FROM COUPLE NIGHTS AGO SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN CWA TONIGHT. TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
MOIST LYR GENERALLY LOWEST 5KFT. SFC LOW DEEPENING IN ERN CO IN
RESPONSE TO DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
INTO THE PLAINS. STOUT UPGLIDE AHEAD OF SFC LOW COUPLE WITH
GOOD UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOIST LYR PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PRETTY MUCH LIMITING PCPN TO DRIZZLE
OVER THE CWA. BIG PROBLEM IS WHERE TO DELINEATE FZDZ/DZ. APPEARS
THAT WAA AHEAD OF SFC LOW WILL KEEP THE SRN AND MOST OF THE ERN CWA
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...THUS WILL CONCENTRATE ADV HEADLINE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE CAA WILL BE MOST
INFLUENTIAL. BY WED AFTN...BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT BEST LIFT SORT OF
ARCING AROUND THE CWA FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN THEN SWD INTO IA.
PTYPE SHOULD BE AN ISSUE BY THEN AND WILL FOCUS HIGHER POPS MAINLY
NORTHEAST. CLOSED OFF SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST TAKING BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WITH IT...THUS DRY AND CHILLIER CONDITIONS THEN HEADING
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GFS/ECM/CMC ALL AGREEING LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE
THRU THE PD WITH LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
GETTING KICKED EWD BY AMPLIFYING WEST COAST LONGWAVE TROF. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN BEFORE
NOTICEABLE CHANGE BEGINS THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ECM/GFS ADVERTISING CAA QUICKLY SWEEPING SWD THRU THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION ABOUT
6 HRS FASTER THAN ECM WITH FROPA INTO CWA. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW
DECENT LLVL MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...AND THEREFORE FEEL IT
IS REASONABLE TO GO WITH SMALL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
TIMING CAA/PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN GFS/ECM DISAGREEMENT...HAVE
OPTED TO USE A SOLUTION COMPROMISE WITH -RA/SN MIX NORTH...-RA
CHANGING TO SN SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...THEN DETERIORATE TOWARD
08-09Z AND ONWARD AS LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE SITES FROM WEST TO
EAST. DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE 09-15Z
TIME WINDOW...BUT WILL HOLD MENTION OUT FOR NOW /WITH JUST A REDUCED
VIS MENTION/ AND LET NEXT TAF CYCLE REFINE TIMING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...BUT VERY STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 800-1000FT AND UP WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/BM