FXUS63 KOAX 230910
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2010
.DISCUSSION...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO THE CWFA EARLY THIS
MORNING. NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WERE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE
NEAR THE KS/NE/MO BORDER REGION BY 12Z. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH NEAR 30 IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...BUT NEAR 40 ALONG THE KS BORDER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG H85 JET
DEVELOPS...THUS HAVE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAY SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CWFA ACROSS MISSOURI AND
IOWA. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...OR MORE LIKELY PATCHY DRIZZLE. THANKFULLY...NON DIURNAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH RISING TEMPS BY
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD
STILL BE BELOW FREEZING WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS...THUS HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHERN HALF CWFA FOR
A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COLD AIR SURGES IN PRETTY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD SWITCH OVER ANY LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN PRECIP IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH DEEP SATURATION STILL REMAINS A PROBLEM. FROM
OMAHA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...IT WOULD STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WAS
SUGGESTING THAT PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP. HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY
OR TWO...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE COLD AND BLUSTERY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 3 HOURLY MAV GUIDANCE...IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND HIGHS THANKSGIVING ONLY IN THE 20S
MOSTLY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER BENIGN FOR MUCH OF
THE US...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST AND THE WEST COAST. FOR THE
LOCAL AREA...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES FOR KOFK/KOMA/KLNK.
06Z TAFS.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BOTH KOMA/KLNK BY 10-11Z
RESPECTIVELY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEWALD