FXUS63 KOAX 302118
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
318 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SC DECK OVR ERN NEB AND WRN IA WL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH
SKIES BECOMING CLR. WINDS WL ALSO BE DIMINISHING AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS /AT 20Z OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS/ MOVS TO THE E. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF PATCHY SN COVER AND
THE EXPECTATION OF SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THRU THE NIGHT.
GOING FORECAST LOWS SEEMED ON TRACK...AND WE MADE VERY FEW
CHANGES. LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
RIDGE AXIS MOVG ACRS THE FA DURING THE DAY LIMITING MIXING.
CURRENT FORECAST WL BE BELOW THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND MAY NOT BE
COOL ENOUGH IN SNOW-COVERED AREAS. RETURN FLOW WL START ON LATE
WED AFTN OVR THE WRN CWA AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHRTWV STARTS TO MOV
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS IS A VERY MINOR SHRTWV AND VERTICAL MOTION
SHLD BE LIMITED. MODELS DUE TO INDC SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
700-750 REGION...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WL LIKELY LEAD TO A BAND OF AT LEAST FLURRIES TRACKING FM
NW TO SE THRU THE FA. SATURATION WL BE A TOP DOWN WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIR NEAR THE SFC. HARD TO TELL IF ANYTHING WL BE MEASURABLE...BUT
THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE WORTH A SCHC POP WHERE THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
IS LOCATED...OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. SYSTEM
SHIFTS S ON THURSDAY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WL TURN N THROUGH
THE DAY AND LIMIT HIGHS ALNG WITH MORE SC /ESPECIALLY IN NE NEB
AND W-CNTRL IA/. WAA WL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHRTV MOVS TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...BUT
ONLY APPEARS TO GIVE OUR CWA SOME MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND
WARMER HIGHS FOR FRIDAY.
BOUSTEAD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IS LIMITED IN THE EXTENDED...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGING BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST.
12Z GFS DEVELOPS A STEEP RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND ATTEMPTS TO DROP
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A BROADER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH A TROUGH ORIENTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...INTRODUCING A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE EARLY MONDAY. IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC...USED PRIMARILY THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS BOTH
MODELS KEEP THE FA PRIMARILY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH TEENS
EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY PLACING THE EASTERN PLAINS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGHS WILL START IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY.
KURTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THRU 00Z
INCLUDING KOFK AND KOMA. KLNK MAY VARY SCT-BKN AFTER 20Z ON WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD FIELD. CLEARING AND DECREASING WINDS AFTER 00Z ACROSS
THE AREA.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$