FXUS63 KOAX 010904
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 AM CST WED DEC 1 2010
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NO SERIOUS ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH THRU THE FCST PD...AND OTHER THEN
POP CHANGE FOR TONIGHT...ONLY MADE MODEST CHANGES HERE AND THERE.
PERSISTENT SC DECK OVER ERN NEB RESULTING FROM SHALLOW LYR OF CAA HAS
PERSISTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RUC13 T-SECT THOUGH
ADVERTISING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TWD RUSH HOUR AS LYR
WARMS UP. OTHERWISE UPPER FLOW CONSISTING OF LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH TROF AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST. UPSTREAM...NEAR ZONAL FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO BUCKLE
INTO A RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN. AS MENTIONED...MAIN FCST TWEAK DONE WAS
IN REGARDS TO POPS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE RIDING DOWN
FRONT SIDE OF DEVELOPING WRN CONUS RIDGE. WEAK DPVA/UPGLIDE WAS
GENERATING MODEST FORCING OVER THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO REPLACE 20 POPS FOR -SN WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES DUE TO
GFS/NAM T-SECT NOT SHOWING MUCH SATURATION BELOW ABOUT 800MB ALONG
WITH VERY LOW OMEGA VALUES. THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY WEAK WRN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MODELS FOCUSING BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
TRAVELING CLOSE TO THE U.S./CAN BORDER. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS DAKOTAS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE CONTINUED DRY FCST. OTHERWISE...GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT NEXT SURGE OF CAA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS COMING EARLY SAT
MORNING...PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 30S.
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
PESKY BAND OF MVFR CIGS AROUND FL020-030 AFFECTING KOFK AND KOMA
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST BY 12Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES...THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTH
AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING CIGS NEAR FL040 AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/SCOTTY