FXUS63 KOAX 070951
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
351 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES...THEN THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A LARGE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST...AND SMALLER MID LEVEL LOW OVR WYOMING...AND A LARGE
MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVR NW COLORADO. FOR OUR AREA...WE HAVE
NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES.
WE ARE STARTING OUT COLD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH INTO
ERN NEB AND IOWA. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH DECOUPLED WINDS AND SFC DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 2 OR 3 DEGREES.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RULE TODAY...MEANWHILE...THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER WY QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD
SPREAD CLOUDS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...AND MIX PRECIP FOR THOSE AREAS. LOCALLY...IT WILL
REMAIN COLD. A WEAK WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD BRING SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH IT FROM THE NORTH AND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACRS SRN NEB. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
BE COLDER THAN MONDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TONIGHT/S TEMP FCST WILL BE TOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTHEAST AND WE PICK UP SW SFC WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. AM COUNTING ON TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SHOULD BE HELD UP IN THE TEENS IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH AS WELL. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES IS PROGGED OVER EASTERN NEB AT 12Z WED. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW CLOUDS AS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
WITH THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE. FOR NOW DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING
MENTIONED. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS SOME BACKDOOR
COOLING WORKS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HAVE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...WITH 40S FROM LINCOLN SOUTHWARD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR US THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTH FLOW
AHEAD OF A SFC TROF...HOLDING SFC TEMPS UP IN THE 20S. AGAIN...AS
THE SFC LOW TRACKS INTO SE NEB...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/TRACE...WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. FOR NOW JUST HAVE CLOUDS
MENTIONED. AGAIN...DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW THERE WILL BE A
GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHING THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY...AND
THIS SHOULD MODERATE TEMPS WILL LOWS IN THE 20S.
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...HOWEVER CONTINUITY IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS STILL A WAYS OFF. THE RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN WITH MORE OF A BROAD TROF FM CANADA
INTO THE U.S. SOUTH FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS MODERATE AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES
SOMEWHERE OVER THE IA/NEB/KS/MO AREA. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIGH
THE GFS WILL BRING MORE SNOW...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST. CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW WITH COLDER NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE SEEM REASONABLE AND CAN FURTHER REFINE AS
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORMS EVOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MRNG AT ALL 3 TAF
LOCATIONS...BUT ANY RESTRICTIONS WLD BE SHRT LIVED. OTHERWISE JUST
SOME HI LVL CLDS ACRS THE AREA WITH LIGHT ERLY LO LVL FLOW NEAR THE
SFC.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD