FXUS63 KOAX 072058
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPERATURES THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE.
FAIRLY POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...NOT AFFECTING OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL FORCE A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND THE NAME REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITHIN THE STRATUS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH AM NOT
CONFIDENT OF THAT GIVEN NEGATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AT OR JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. WILL HIT THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE AND INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG
FOR NOW. WILL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
ELKHORN...PLATTE AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS...WITH ONE MORE COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCAL STEAM FOG EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT THEN
LIKELY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF TO OUR SOUTH...THUS DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHERN CWFA WHERE STRATUS WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
BURN OFF IN THE MORNING LIMITING OVERALL WARMING POTENTIAL.
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA...THUS EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
THURSDAY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AGAIN RESULTING
IN A FAIRLY MILD DAY...CERTAINLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BEFORE THE
ARCTIC EXPRESS ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SFC
LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN
BECOME A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MONDAY-TUESDAY. DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO AND THROUGH
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING AN ABRUPT TEMPERATURE
DROP WHILE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. PRECIP TYPE WILL THUS BE
COMPLICATED...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP BEGINS BEFORE
COLD AIR HAS SWEPT THROUGH. THINK SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN
MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT CENTRAL AND NORTH MIGHT SEE SOME FREEZING
RAIN AS TEMPS ALOFT DROP A BIT FASTER THAN SFC TEMPS. NORTHERN
AREAS THEN MIGHT CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NIGHT AS COLD PLUNGE TAKES
HOLD. PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED
THOUGH...AS ARCTIC SURGE SEEMS PRETTY POTENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
HAVE INDICATED THIS GRADIENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA AS SFC LOW
DEEPENS...AT THE NOSE OF A WEAK TROWAL FEATURE EVIDENT ON THE 300K
SFC...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON POTENTIAL AMOUNTS.
THE TROUGH WILL BRING A STRONG COLD AIR SURGE OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
1040-1045MB HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE DAKOTAS IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND
850MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C SPILLING INTO THE CWA. TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE AT LEAST INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE TEENS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES EAST INTO MN/WI...CWA WILL GET
INTO RETURN FLOW...AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...WITH NIL CHANCES
OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
AT TAF SITE KOFK...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AFTER 08Z...THEN IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. LOOK FOR
THESE CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FROM LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF KOFK
EXTENDING NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR AFTER
08/18Z. KOMA AND KLNK EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MEYER