FXUS63 KOAX 080945
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 AM CST WED DEC 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...THEN
CHC OF PRECIP/PRECIP TYPE FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...CHC
OF SNOW...AND TURNING SHARPLY COLDER AND WINDY.
STARTING OUT THIS MORNING...THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WAS OVER
WYOMING TUESDAY MORNING HAD DIVED SOUTHEAST TO ERN OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS BY THIS MORNING. A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS NOTED OVER
THE ROCKIES AT 110W LONGITUDE...WITH A STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED TROF IN
THE NW FLOW OVR MN. THERE IS A 70KT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST SPREADING SOME MID CLOUDS INTO
IA/WI/IL. LOWER LEVEL NORTH FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FLURRIES
FM THE DAKOTAS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NEB AND IOWA. THIS IS
SHORTLIVED AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN AND
SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM AND IN ADDITION...THE MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOW BE NON-
DIURNAL...AS THINK TEMPS WILL DROP OFF AT SUNSET...BUT THEN STEADY
AND RISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S...AS CLOUDS GIVE WAY AND THE SFC TROF
PASSES THRU WITH MILD WESTERLY FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NRN
PLAINS WILL BRING PRECIP TO THAT AREA...BUT IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINLY DRY LOCALLY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND
BROADENS...AND REMAINS MILD ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 20S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S
AND 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE BROAD TROF
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. THE SYNOPIC SYSTEM PROVIDES BROAD LIFT AND A STRONG 150KT UPR
LEVEL JET BRINGS SOME UPR LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE REGION. THERE IS A
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRES OVER ERN NEB AND THIS MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND H85 ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES...INTIALLY
THIS WOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH MIXED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE NORTH.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...THE BRUNT
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER MUCH
COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE SNOW. AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK LIGHT DUE
TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THERE COULD ALSO BE BLOWING SNOW DUE
TO THE STRONG WINDS SAT. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES SAT. INCREASED
POPS SAT...ALTHOUGH QPF IS STILL LIGHT...AND INCREASED WINDS.
STILL LOOKS VERY COLD AND DRY FOR SUN. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SAT AND FALL BELOW ZERO FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. IFR CIGS OVR ERN
SD NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO OFK THIS MRNG. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME
MARGINAL MVFR VISBY AT ALL 3 TAF SITES DUE TO LIGHT FOG...BUT THIS
WLD AGAIN QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MAINLY HI LVL
CLDS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AGAIN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD