FXUS63 KOAX 020143
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
743 PM CST WED DEC 1 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH A REGIONAL SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALED SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW A MID CLOUD DECK THAT
WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION...ATTACHED WITH A VERY WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WERE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AND
VISUAL OBSERVATION FROM NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES INDICATED A DECENT
LAYER OF VIRGA NOTED OVERHEAD. THUS...AM EVEN HAVING DOUBTS ABOUT
AREAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND MAY CONSIDER DROPPING
COVERAGE TERMINOLOGY TO ISOLATED FROM SCATTERED...SINCE NEARLY ALL
MODEL SUITES REMAIN QPF FREE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT THE 18Z GFS. WILL
LET THE 00Z NAM BEGIN TRICKLING IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH MAINLY EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN DRY.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED DEC 1 2010/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
20Z SFC ANLYS INDCD RIDGE AXIS FM ERN KS UP THE MO RIVER VALLEY
INTO ERN SD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD THIS EVNG ALLOWING FOR
SRLY WINDS TO PICK UP OVR THE NEB PORTION OF OUR CWA. LATE AFTN
WV IMAGERY INDCS NEXT SHRTWV TROF FOR THE FA IS CURRENTLY OVR SRN
MT AND IS TRACKING TO THE SE. THIS SHLD INITIALLY SPREAD HIGH
CLDS INTO THE CWA THIS EVNG. TMPS MAY DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
EVNG IN SW IA WHERE SFC RIDGE REMAINS ALNG WITH MOSTLY CLR
SKIES...AND ALSO OVER THE SNOW PACK IN NE NEB. BUT ALL TMPS SHLD
LEVEL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAA AND CLDS INCREASE. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WL PEAK AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MT
SHRTWV TRACKS THRU THE FA. LO-LVL ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY OVERNIGHT...AND MUCH OF THE LIFT WL GO TO SATURATION. THUS
SOME QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH...IF ANYTHING WILL MEASURE. MODELS
DO SEEM CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A GOOD DEAL OF WARM AIR ABOVE
THE SFC WHICH ACTUALLY MAKES PRECIP TYPE /IF IT WERE TO OCCUR/ IN
QUESTION AS WELL. WE WILL RUN WITH A FORECAST THAT DOES NOT
INCLUDE MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT BUT INCLUDE SOME FLURRIES AND/OR
FREEZING SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT GENERALLY ALNG AND N OF A SEWARD TO
NEBRASKA CITY LINE...BUT EITHER WAY IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG
DEAL FOR ANYONE.
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MRNG ON THURS...BUT
SFC TO H85 FLOW WL TURN NRLY...AND GIVEN THE MODEL TIME SECTIONS
OF RH...THINK WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME STRATUS MOV INTO THE NRN
AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL CWA BY AFTN. WE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT
BACK ON HIGHS IN THE N ON THURS WHERE CLD COVER AND CAA ARE
EXPECTED. WAA THOUGH WL QUICKLY KICK IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
MUCH STRONGER SHRTWV TROF HEADS FOR THE NRN PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT FZDZ NR THE SODAK BORDER
LATE THURS NIGHT...BUT DOESN'T SEEM A HIGH ENOUGH CHC TO MENTION
ATTM. MOS SEEMED A LITTLE COOL IN MOST AREAS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLD COVER AND WAA. WAA CONTS THRU FRI AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW WARM WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET.
STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
TRIMMED A TOUCH UP NORTH WHERE CLDS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD TOUGH.
THE SFC LO TRACKS THRU THE NRN PLAINS IN FRI NIGHT WITH THE CDFNT
SWEEPING THRU THE FA. THERE IS DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285
AND 290 K...BUT COND PRES DEF OVR OUR FA REMAIN PRETTY HIGH. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ERN CWA ON FRIDAY EVNG/NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME WL LEAVE IT DRY. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASED WITH STG CAA ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALNG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
THE SC BEHIND THE FNT. ATTM /EXCEPT NEAR THE SODAK BORDER/ IT
APPEARS THE SC DECK WL BE WARMER THAN -12 C AND THUS WL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES IN THE POST FRONT ATMOSPHERE. STG CAA CONTS INTO
SAT ALNG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS OVR THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA AND WE
HAVE CUT HIGHS WELL BACK.
BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATED A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER NERN
NEB ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES. FOR NOW...WL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODEL CONTINUITY ARGUES MORE
HEAVILY FOR LIGHT PCPN SUNDAY. CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
KERN
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL SLIDE EAST AS CLIPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 00Z. WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR AFTER
12Z WITH NAM USED FOR TIMING AT TAF SITES.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
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