FXUS63 KOAX 011608
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1008 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO ALLOW THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND MADE
OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO CLDS/TEMPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH COLD TEMPS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS.
WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTH 20 TO 25 BELOW EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE
AROUND -15 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS TO 20S IN THE SOUTH. LUNCHTIME WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 BELOW IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 1 IN THE
SOUTH...SHOULD MODERATE BY MID AFTERNOON TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN
THE NORTH TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THESE
COULD HAVE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THEM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT JAN 1 2011/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED SOME CLOUDS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWFA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH STILL
RATHER BRISK CONDITIONS WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. THE
WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE COMBINED CONDITIONS WERE STILL
CREATING VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES...THE ARE GENERALLY ABOVE THE
CRITERIA OF 20 BELOW...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THUS...WILL DROP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A FEW
COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. H70 DENDRITIC TEMPS OF
-18 TO -20 WITHIN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WERE ALSO CREATING SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CYCLONIC FLOW SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASES
THIS AFTERNOON SO DROPPED THE FLURRIES AFTER 18Z.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUITE A BIT
OVERNIGHT...WITH SUB ZERO READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXIST. WINDS WILL BE LESS THEN 10 MPH
THOUGH...BUT WIND CHILL INDICES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL
AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 20 BELOW BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
THERE IS A VERY WEAK CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY THAT COULD SPREAD SOME CLOUDS ALONG/NORTH OF I80
SUNDAY...BUT DID NOT MENTION FLURRIES ATTM SINCE H70 TEMPS SHOULD
NOT REACH DENDRITIC. A SECONDARY AND SLIGHTLY SHARPER CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND H70 TEMPS INDEED
FLIRT WITH THE DENDRITIC ZONE...THUS SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SEEM REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
AGAIN...NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED.
FOR THE EXTENDED...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A NEVER ENDING PATTERN...MODELS REMAIN
FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY WARM UP...AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
VLD
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
DEEP SFC LOW WAS SITUATED OVER MN THIS MORNING WITH TIGHT PRESS
GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEB. EXPECT SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO
PERSIST THRU THE DAY RESULTING CROSS WIND THREAT AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH WRLY GUSTS 25-30KT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY RELAX TWD
02/00Z. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WERE HOLDING ON OVER NERN NEB THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AT KOFK/KOMA THRU ABOUT
02/01Z...THEN VFR. AT KLNK...VFR EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY