FXUS63 KOAX 012050
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CST SAT JAN 1 2011
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
WITH LARGE TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. POOL OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER
THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMP OF -21C OFF 12Z OAX SOUNDING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...FRESH SNOW COVER OVER NWRN ZONES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH
DEEPER SNOWCOVER. OUR SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK 850MB WAA. LIGHT SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD TOP
OUT NEAR FREEZING IN OUR SNOW-FREE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH UPPER TEENS
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS APPROACHING NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVES SEWD ACROSS SD. WITH INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES SO WL CONTINUE THE
MENTION ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MID AND LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR NOW.
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE STRONGLY SPLIT
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JETSTREAM...WITH FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH 500 MB
PATTERN UP UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY...THEN GFS WAS A BIG MORE AGRESSIVE
BRINGING A CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS IS STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST OR SOUTH
WITH THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
MOST OTHER MEMBERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (ALSO FARTHER WEST THAN THE
12Z ECMWF)...SO THOUGHT 12Z GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WERE A BIT TOO
COLD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PD WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY