FXUS63 KOAX 110948
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
348 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND COLD WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE INVERTED TROF IN WRN IA BETWEEN
ADAIR AND DES MOINES...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN
FM THE WEST WITH A SFC GRADIENT IN BETWEEN RESULTING IN SFC WINDS
OF 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30KTS.
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF IS DROPPING
SOUTH ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT OUR WRN IOWA COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND COULD BE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE. H9 WINDS OF 30-40KTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SFC WINDS MOSTLY FM 16-22KTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE
EASTERN CWA AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERA NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MET...LET THE ADVISORY GO FOR THE ERN CWA. LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL FOR THE BLOWING SNOW...IN PLACE FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY FOR THE WIND CHILLS AND THE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ON WEST TO EAST ROADS.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST WHERE
IT WILL KEEP OUR WINDS UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...10-15KTS IN THE
EVENING AND 8 TO 12KTS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP...THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT...THIS IS ALSO
COMPLICATED WITH THE SNOWCOVER. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS 0 TO 5 BELOW IN
THE EAST AND 5 TO 12 BELOW ZERO WEST. WILL LIKLEY NEED AN ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT WITH
CURRENT HEADLINE GOING WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT ASSESS TO ISSUE AT A
LATER TIME.
MODERATED TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS AND USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. ALSO MODERATED
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY ALONG WITH NEIGHBORS...ALTHOUGH STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND AS TO WHEN THE COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE. STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL SAT/SAT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID LVL CLD DECK NR KOMA SHLD EXIT THIS MRNG ALNG WITH ANY
FLURRIES...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SC LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN
AT KOFK AND KOMA. BRISK NW WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO BLSN THIS
MRNG AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...BUT VISBY SHLD STAY ABOVE MVFR RANGE.
OTHERWISE GUSTS WL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTN...AND WIND SPEEDS WL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS SFC HI PRES NEARS THE AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD