FXUS63 KOAX 112105
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE TEMPS AND WIND CHILL OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI
MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH ITS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL RESULT IN A BKN/OVC
DECK THAT REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COULD HOWEVER HAVE AN
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...THUS RAISED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WHERE IVE GOT A BIT HIGHER CLOUD COVER. THERE ALSO ARE A
FEW FLURRIES WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD BASES ALONG THE RIVER BETWEEN
OMAHA AND SIOUX CITY...BUT NOT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED.
MOVING ON TO LOWS ELSEWHERE...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES...EVEN LOWER THAN THE
COLDER MAV READINGS. THIS...COMBINED WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. IN FACT...SOME AREAS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD GO COLDER THAN 30 BELOW FOR WIND CHILL IF THE SKIES
TREND CLEARER THAN FORECAST. FOR THIS REASON...WILL ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND WILL BRIEF NEXT SHIFT
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING TO A WIND CHILL WARNING IF
NECESSARY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN POOR MIXING DESPITE SUNSHINE. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES CONSIDERING THE FRESH
SNOW PACK.
BEYOND THEN...A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY
BUT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...
AND IN FACT...SHOULD SEE RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY. BEST FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...AND OPTED TO REMOVE
FLURRIES NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER REGION.
DEWALD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE REGION TO OUR NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
PAINT A SWATH OF QPF OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES
THRU. WL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE AREA HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING ON IT REMAINS IN QUESTION.
OVERALL THE EXTENDED LOOKS COLD WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
OVERALL...FRIGID VFR COND EXPECTED THRU THE PD AS COLD SFC HIGH
ENVELOPS THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SOME INDICATION FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS GENERALLY BTWN 12/10Z-16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS
AT ALL TERMINALS.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-088>093.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-
065-066-078.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$