FXUS63 KOAX 130936
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 AM CST THU JAN 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COLD AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW -11
AND -13 DEGREE TEMPS. THESE READINGS HAVE ALREADY MODERATED AS THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS GIVING WAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALREADY
10-15KTS IN THE WRN CWA. THE FORECAST AREA TENDS TO REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH VARYING DEGREES
OF TROFINESS OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
TODAY...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE MIDLANDS IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TODAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL FALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DRY
WEATHER HERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KT...AIDED BY A
35 TO 45KT JET. SNOW SHOULD HOLD BACK THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH TEENS IN PARTS OF WRN IA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AS THAT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE STLT PICS AND LIGHTNING...THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM IS OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON/OREGON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPLIT IT/S ENERGY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH
PART OF IT TRACKING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SRN PART OF THE
WAVE DEEPENING AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO. FOR OUR
AREA...THE MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH AND RH
AVAILABLE. HAD SOME FLURRIES IN...HOWEVER THE 12Z RUNS TODAY WERE
DRIER...SO IT WAS TAKEN OUT. NOW THE 00Z RUNS ARE SPLIT WITH THE
NAM DRY/SREF TRACE/GFS/ECWMF/GEM HAVE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. PRECIP TYPE THEN BECOMES AN ISSUE AS
INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THEN SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN
WITH THE WARM LAYER MOVING IN. MAY ADD BACK IN A SLT CHC OF SLEET
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHEAST OR LEAVE DRY AND PASS THE INFO ON TO THE
DAYSHIFT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...LONG THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIEANT...ACROSS OUR CWA SAT
NIGHT THRU SUN. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. TENDED TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF WINDS SATURDAY MORNING
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THRU THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL 3 TERMINALS.
MID AND HI LVL CLDS WL CONT...BUT SHLD BE AT OR ABOVE 8 KFT.
SOUTHERLY LO LVL FLOW WL INCREASE TODAY AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SFC LEADING TO LO-LVL WIND SHEAR
ARND 40 KT THRU MID AFTN BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY THIS EVNG.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD