FXUS63 KOAX 190917
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD AND INTO
EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IOWA WHILE BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS SRN WY/ERN CO. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS DISTINCT
CLEARING AREA MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS ERN WY. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THIS WL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THRU THE DAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER ADVANCES INTO NRN TX. REGIONAL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE DENDRITIC ZONE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD BE SUSTAINED FOR ABOUT
6 HOURS FROM AT LEAST 18Z THRU 00Z. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ABOUT
0.30" OF QPF OVER OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO ONLY
0.01" IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH SNOW RATIO AMOUNTS AROUND
20:1 OR SO BY THIS AFTERNOON...THINK NEAR 6 INCHES OR SO OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH IS ENOUGH TO MEET WARNING
CRITERIA SO WL GO WITH A SMALL WARNING AREA. HAVE REALLY TRIMMED
BACK SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH AS TIGHT PCPN GRADIENT SETS UP WITH
VERY DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THINK SOME AREAS MAY ONLY
SEE A TRACE IN THE NORTH...IF THAT. INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BECOMES
CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE WHERE DRY AIR MAY WIN OVER STRONG FORCING.
HAVE TRIMMED OMAHA AREA SNOWFALL TO UNDER 2" BUT HAVE KEPT THE
LINCOLN AREA AROUND 3". WL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES
JUST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA. LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SNOW FROM BLOWING OR DRIFTING.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO TEXAS WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY END PCPN OVER THE REGION FROM N TO S LATER THIS EVENING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROF DIGS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRAG ARCTIC AIR SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS BECOME QUITE
CHALLENGING...ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM THRU MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE
AN IN DEPTH LOOK AT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AT KOFK...AND KOMA WILL LIKELY CLEAR BY
09Z...BUT MAY HOLD AT KLNK BASED ON TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WEST.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT COMES OUT OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK BY 21Z WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT IT SHOULD QUICKLY END BY 20/00Z. AT
KOMA...SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VISBYS FROM ABOUT 23Z-02Z. KLNK SHOULD
EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW...AS EARLY AS 16-18Z...BECOMING
PREVAILING MVFR BY ABOUT 19Z...AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
3/4SM -SN FROM 22-02Z...BUT ENDING BY ABOUT 04Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065-066-068-078-090-091.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ088-089-092-093.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD