FXUS63 KOAX 192121
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SNOW EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA.
THAT IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. 500 MB CHART FROM 12Z
THIS MORNING SHOWED STRONGEST 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 130 M
AT KSLC. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HEADING
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH COLD HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL AND ERN SD INTO IA AND NRN MO HAS LIMITED SNOW FARTHER
EAST. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUED BACK OVER PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NE AT
MID AFTN. THE SNOW AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DVLP EWD BUT WITH MAIN
SNOW BAND SHIFTING DOWN INTO KS AND MO THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND SNOW ADVISORY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES A FEW
HOURS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL BE TRICKY AS SNOW
ENDS AND CLOUD COVER DECREASES. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS FROM 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO. POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE
IN THE FAR SERN CORNER OF THE STATE. MID LEVEL MIXING RATIOS OVER
SERN NE SHOULD STILL BE 2-3 G/KG IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT DROP TO LESS THAN 2 G/KG BY 06Z.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL START MOVING SWD ACROSS THE DKTS
AND MN TNGT...THEN THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY. EXPECT A DECENT WARM
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND BETTER MIXING THAN
TODAY. THAT FRONT WILL HANG UP AND SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THU NGT. LOWS
AGAIN THU NGT WILL BE TRICKY AND TEMPS SHOULD BE RISING LATE...AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES EWD. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI...MAINLY FOR OUR
NRN AND ERN ZONES. HIGHS BOTH FRI AND SAT SHOULD REACH THE 20S...
AND MAY APPROACH 30 IN OUR WRN COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN LATEST CMC/ECM SOLUTIONS...NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SAT
NIGHT. LEANING TWD CMC/ECM...MID LYR THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS IS WEAK AT BEST OVER THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...CMC 300-500MB QVECT SOLUTION SUGGESTING FORCING PER DPVA
SHOULD BE HINDERED WITH ONSET OF DEEP CAA QUICKLY FUNNELING IN BTWN
00Z-12Z SUN. FURTHER MORE...BEST QVECT FORCING PER ECM IS FOCUSED
FROM CNTRL KS TO TX PANHANDLE. CMC TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT IS
VIRTUALLY NIL ON WRT PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WHILE ECM ADVERTISES AGEO
FORCING QUICKLY FADING TWD 06Z SUN. ALSO NONE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE DEPICTING ANY SIGNIFICANT 850-300MB DIFF DIVERGENCE INVOF
THE CWA. HOWEVER IF FUTURE ECM/CMC SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TRENDING TWD
CURRENT GFS...SNOW POTENTIAL THEN WILL INCREASE FOR SURE. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...WOULD FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO PULL SLIGHT POPS
GIVEN MORE FACTORS SAYING NO THAT YES DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS ADVERTISED
AT THAT TIME. BUT FOR THE SAKE OF HARMONY WITH NEIGHBORS...WILL
LEAVE POPS IN PLACE TO BLEND IN. OTHERWISE...MODELS OVERALL IN
AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF UPPER TROF PREVAILING
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF VORTS RUNNING THRU
THE GREAT PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
THE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE KOFK/KLNK TAF SITES WITH IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD
TOWARD KOMA. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL LIFR VSBYS IN THE
SNOW THROUGH 01-03Z AT KOFK/KLNK...THEN BECOMING MVFR/IFR AT KOMA.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES AFT 03Z...WITH IMPROVING CIGS TO
VFR 04-07Z. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE FM THE NW TO NE AT 4 TO 10 KTS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ088-089-
092-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ065-
066-068-078-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ030-
042-050.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM....DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY