FXUS63 KOAX 232106
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THE WHOLE NOT MUCH LARGE SCALE CHANGE PROGGED DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THIS WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PAC NW WAVES RIDING
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE. FORTUNATELY NONE WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS NEEDED AS THEY
PASS THRU. FIRST CHANCE COMING TONIGHT WHEN SFC LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS IN MN UNDER NRN PORTION OF POS TILT LONGWAVE TROF.
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT/AGEO FORCING GIVING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACTIVITY. MOIST AVAILABILITY THOUGH IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. ON TUESDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SINCE DPVA/MID LYR AGEO
FORCING SWEEPS QUICKLY THRU...HAVE OPTED TO FOCUS SMALL POPS NORTH
00Z-06Z...AND THEN SOUTH 06Z-12Z. ON WED MODELS ADVERTISING
INCREASING 500MB HGTS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THEN DOWN INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. UNFORTUNATELY THE AMPLIFICATION DRIVES ANOTHER COLD
AIRMASS DOWN THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY AND WILL HINDER ANY
POSSIBLE TEMP RECOVERY.
DEE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF ERN US TROF AND WRN US RIDGE STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL CONT THRU THE EXTENDED. THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BE THE WARM UP ON THU/FRI...AND THEN ANOTHER
ARCTIC PLUNGE OVER NEXT WEEKEND. TO START THE PERIOD A MINOR SHRTWV
TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION...BUT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK
MARGINAL AND THUS WL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. A PACIFIC WARM FRONT
WILL THEN TRY AND PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE THU AND THU NIGHT
TIME FRAME. A DECENT WARM-UP CONTS TO LOOK ON TARGET AND ONLY CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH ON FRI OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN FA. FAIRLY DEEP SNOW COVER OVER THE REGION WILL CONT
TO HAMPER THE WARMING...BUT ADVECTION OF PACIFIC AIR FM THE HIGH
PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TMPS ABOVE FREEZING. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG
AT TIMES WITH THE WARMER AIR...BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
THEN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A STRONG...BUT MAINLY
DRY...CDFNT WILL DROP THRU THE REGION LATE FRI. ECMWF WLD BRING SOME
VERY STG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE AREA...AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THE OPERATIONAL EC WOULD
HAVE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOWS ON FRI NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SAT FM
PREVIOUS EXTENDED. COLD AIR LOOKS TO CONT TO POUR INTO THE REGION
FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND WE WL GO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.
JB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT KOMA/KLNK WILL BECOME SRLY BY AROUND
00-03Z...AND WILL SWITCH TO NWRLY BY AROUND 14-17Z AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10KT.
WINDS AT KOFK ARE ALREADY SRLY AND MAY REACH 10-15KT BEFORE
SWITCHING TO NWRLY AROUND 12-14Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT OVER
FRESH SNOW HAS ME CONCERNED THAT VIS MAY LOWER TO MVFR RANGE...BUT
GUIDANCE KEPT VIS ABOVE 6SM THROUGH 18Z...AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
LOWERED VIS AT THIS POINT.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$