FXUS63 KOAX 231532
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
932 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011
.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SRN CWA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SRN CWA...AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING.
THUS...HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORY EARLY. DID CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NOW. WIND CHILLS HAVE POPPED IN
OCCASIONALLY BELOW -20F SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY...BUT THINK THAT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...SO DID NOT
EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES BECOME A CONCERN. DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VERY COLD START
IS LIKELY TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING MID-20S /WHICH WOULD BE A
NEARLY 40 DEGREE WARM-UP OVER FRESH SNOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/.
HAVE TWEAKED DOWN FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY FOR ADDITIONAL TWEAKS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP ALREADY SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011/
DISCUSSION...
ENDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED OUR SNOW SATURDAY EVENING WAS
BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE IN DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
AND ANOTHER ONE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REFLECTIVITIES
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WERE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. MEANWHILE CLOUDS WERE
CLEARING IN OUR FAR NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS
SETTLING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW ZERO THERE...AND EVEN
WITH WINDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS ARE COLDER THAN 20 BELOW.
SO CONCERNING HEADLINES...NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE...WILL CONVERT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OF WINTER STORM WARNING TO A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND RUN IT THROUGH THE MORNING. OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA...WITH SNOW DRYING UP ON RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR CONVERT WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR
THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN
10 BELOW. ALL ADVISORIES WILL END AT NOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE COLD HIGH
PUSHING SOUTH. THEN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR WEST WHERE HIGHS COULD TOP 20. IN
THE EAST...LIGHT WINDS AND A LATE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW...COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE DIVING
THROUGH MINNESOTA. HAVE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AT SUNRISE
MONDAY. A DECENT WARM UP LOOKS ON TRACK MONDAY DESPITE COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE MIXING
SO HIGHS IN THE 20S LOOK ASSURED...WITH SOME 30S IN OUR SOUTHWEST
WHERE SNOW COVER IS NOT AS DEEP.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP TOWARD THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY...BUT WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PREVENTING LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. ANOTHER
QUICK WARM UP ON TUESDAY IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY EVENING...BUT LOOKS DRY ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE TEENS AS NORTH OR
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN STIFF...BUT HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE
INTO THE 20S AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
AGAIN THIS MORNING HAVE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST AFTER
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR WARMING.
DERGAN
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KOFK AFTER 09Z AND AFTER 12Z AT KOMA
AND KLNK AS SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS ALSO SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 12Z AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042-043.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
MAYES