FXUS63 KOAX 032103
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CST MON JAN 3 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHICH IS KICKING
OFF LIGHT SNOW UST NORTH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR
THE CA/NV BORDER...WITH STILL ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CA COAST.
STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS IN THE ZONAL FLOW FROM CO/KS TOWARD
NC/VA...WITH ANOTHER STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NWRLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF FLURRIES OR A FEW CLOUDS
PERIODICALLY. WITH THE ERN US UPPER LOW CENTERED WELL EAST IN
ONT...SYSTEMS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AND A COOLER DAY TOMORROW...TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SWRN CWA WHICH IS
FARTHEST FROM THE TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS.
MADE FEW CHANGES IN FORECAST...OTHER THAN BUMPING UP MIN TEMPS ON A
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS AREA LACKS SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS MAY HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN INTO SATURDAY. DID INTRODUCE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. 500 MB FLOW WILL
STILL BE STRONGLY SPLIT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD...BUT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
ON THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN REGARDS TO WHAT WILL
HAPPEN BECAUSE OF BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS STILL A BIT DIFFERENT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE AREA SOONER (ON SATURDAY).
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND COULD TAP GULF MOISTURE AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ACRS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS DRAGGED
A WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE TAF SITS. SFC WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 KTS. THESE SFC WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF EARLY THIS EVENING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CLOUD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. AT THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
LOWER CIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TAF SITES AS IT APPEARS TO SKIRT KOFK
AND KOMA TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY