FXUS63 KOAX 042044
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED IN THE SHRT TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. THE FA WILL RESIDE IN THE
AREA BETWEEN THE COLDER NRN STREAM...WITH CLDS AND PRECIP OVR THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPR LVL RIDGE TO THE W WITH WARMER PAC AIR
SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LATE AFTN WV
IMAGERY INDCS A WEAK UPPR LVL SYSTEM MOVG THRU MN WITH THE NEXT
STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROF OVR NE ALBERTA. WK SFC REFLECTION OF
THE MN SHRTWV WAS A MILD TROF THAT EXTNDD FM CNTRL MN INTO NRN
NEB. THIS WL MOV THRU THE FA OVERNIGHT AND TEND TO KEEP THE FLOW
AND TMPS UP IN THE CNTRL AND SRN FA OVERNIGHT. THE ALBERTA SHRTWV
TROF WL MOV THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON WED...BUT WITH WRLY NEAR SFC
WINDS ACRS THE FA...SHLD SEE TMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVS INTO THE FA ON WED NIGHT...BUT
SHLD MAINLY AFFECT THE NE CWA. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH
THE SC DECK...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THIS WL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS WARMER PAC AIR TRIES TO MOV INTO FOR THURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
BOUSTEAD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL TURN WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE KEY TO THE TEMPERATURES
FORECASTS WITH SFC WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...A
COUPLE OF SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE ORGANIZING OVER EASTERN WYOMING
AND TX. MID TROPOSPHERIC WAVES ARE ALSO ORGANIZING OVER MONTANA AND
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALSO OVER
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. SOME PRECIP MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE NORTH SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE ROCKIES. THE H85 CIRCULATION SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND THIS ALLOWS VERY COLD AIR TO BE PULLED
DOWN FROM CANADA. FLOW AROUND THE SRN STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING MOISTURE WITH IT. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THE SAT
NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT PD MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIGHTENED UP THE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS IN
PLACE...COLDER HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR TEENS AND 20S SUN-TUES.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF WAS VERY SIMILAR IN PATTERN TO THE 12Z
GFS...THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECWMF IS MUCH DIFFERENT. THE 12Z EURO
RETROGRADES THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS FORCES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH KEEPS US
OUT OF MOST OF THE SNOW. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS
WILL WAIT UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONTINUITY ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED
STILL LOOKS DRY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT NEAR
KOFK AS A WAVE DESCENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN...WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$