FXUS63 KOAX 252112
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORTER TERM AS SEVERAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES CROSS FORECAST AREA.
FIRST BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO CNTRL SD AS OF
19Z...DRIVEN SEWD BY SHORTWV ENERGY FM NCNTRL SD INTO WRN ONTARIO
W/MOST OF THIS ENERGY WELL INTO CANADA. ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS TO
REFLECT STEADY/RISING TEMPS BHND BOUNDARY TNGT. COLDEST POSSIBLY
SERN ZONES BY LATE EVENING WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OR FAR N WHERE COLD ADVECTION STRONGEST
LATE. OVERALL NOT A BIG RANGE IN TEMPS BUT CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY
MILDER MET. TROUGH WAS DRIVING MID CLOUD DECK SEWD AND MENTIONED A
FEW POST FRONTAL FLURRIES BHND IT THIS EVENING N...BUT NAM/GFS
KEEP LAYER BTWN H85 AND H7 VERY DRY OVERNGT SO REMOVED POPS. FOG
OR BACK-BUILDING OF LOW CLOUDS SUGGESTED BY SREF OVR SWRN IA/FAR
SERN NEBR LATER TNGT AND MENTIONED FOG THAT AREA. DID NOT MENTION
FZDZ SERN ZONES THIS FORECAST AS DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN BLYR AND
AMOUNT OF FORCING IN THAT LAYER QUESTIONABLE. COOL ADVCTN ON WED
BHND FRONT MODEST AND THEN MOSTLY IN BLYR WITH H85 ADVCTN
NEUTRAL. FEEL ENOUGH MIXING WILL EXIST TO RID AREA OF ANY RESIDUAL
LOW CLOUDS ON WED AND LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER MET.
DECENT LOW LVL MIXING TO CONTINUE THU/FRI. WARM ADVECTION IS
STRONG ENOUGH IN ADVANCE OF SECOND AND THIRD BOUNDARIES...FCST TO
CROSS CWA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESPECTIVELY...SUCH THAT COOL
ADVCTN AFTER PASSAGE STILL LEAVES A NET GAIN OF SVRL DEGREES C AT
H85/H925 THU AND THEN AGAIN FRI OVER EACH PRECEDING DAY. THUS WITH
THE STRONG MIXING LEANED AGAIN TOWARD WARMER MET ON THU AND ADDED
A FEW DEGREES TO THOSE READINGS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HARD TO TIME
POSSIBLE MID CLOUD OR STRATO CU BANDS THAT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
AND TRAIL EACH BOUNDARY. THUS WENT WITH GENERALLY RANGE MID
RANGE...PTCLDY...SKY GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MEAN ERN US TROF WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD AS
SHRTWV ENERGY DEPRESSES THE ERN SIDE OF THE WRN US RIDGE. THIS WILL
FIST START TO HAPPEN ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT AS A STG
SYSTEM MOVS THRU THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SEASONABLY STG CDFNT TO MOV THRU THE FA. MODELS CONT TO
WEAKEN THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND NOW PLACE
EMPHASIS ON MON AS THE COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED. ENSEMBLE MOS WLD
INDC THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME WITH 3
TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS INDICATED. THUS WL NOT GO AS COLD AT HPC
GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS WARM AS OPERATIONAL MEX GUIDANCE EITHER /WHICH
SEEMED TO BE AFFECTED BY CLIMO/.
CDFNT ON FRI INTO SAT CONTS TO LOOK DRY ATTM...BUT ADDITIONAL SHRTWV
ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DIVE SEWD IN THE NW FLOW LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
AT THAT TIME...EVIDENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE NAEFS.
NEVERTHELESS...IT IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIP DURING THE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON TIME FRAME AS SHRTWV ENERGY TO THE W CROSSES THE STG
THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THE 12Z 25 JAN EC ALSO HINTED AT SOME PRECIP AS WELL.
WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE SRN TRACK. WL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF PRECIP ATTM...BUT SOME POPS WL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER FOR
THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME /ESPECIALLY OVR THE SRN CWA/.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 03Z OR SO. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS AND ALSO A
BLANKET OF STRATUS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/BOUSTEAD/KERN