FXUS63 KOAX 020955
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011
.DISCUSSION...
...WIND CHILLS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM...
BIG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROWAL WAS MOVING WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE SNOW HAVING
ENDED IN OAX COUNTIES. ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS... 1046 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WAS ANALYZED NEAR CHAD RON. PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH AT 09Z. WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -3 IN NORFOLK TO +5 IN FALLS CITY...WIND
CHILLS ARE HOVERING IN ADVISORY CRITERIA AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WIND
CHILLS ARE MAINLY IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
GENERALLY EXPECT THE WIND CHILLS IN IOWA TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20 TO -29F THROUGH
16Z. ADJUSTED THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND
DROPPED THE WIND CHILL WARNING DUE TO NOT REACHING THE -30F
CRITERIA.
SOME CONCERN FOR REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANOTHER
ADVISORY UNTIL WE CAN SEE THE DETAILS OF THE WIND AND TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS BETTER.
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WERE BECOMING LESS WITH TIME AS THE SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR SLOWS AND THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SUNNIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CONTINUING
THE LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS FRONT.
NIETFELD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MID LVL CLD DECK IN THE WAKE OF THE WINTER STORM WILL CONT AT OMA
INTO EARLY MRNG BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE E. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WE CLD SEE A LITTLE SC
DEVELOP THIS AFTN WITH THE SUNSHINE...BUT LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS
PRETTY DRY AND THUS WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS MRNG BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT FM THE
W LATE THIS AFTN. OMA/LNK MAY CONT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT WRLY SFC WINDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
AT OFK. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
BOUSTEAD