FXUS63 KOAX 022108
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW
CONCERNS INCLUDE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THEN SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER FRESH SNOW COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR UNDER 10 ABOVE THROUGH 3 PM.
WITH THE COLD AFTERNOON START AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF SOME BY LATE
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALSO CREATE WIND CHILL
CONCERNS. EVEN WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES DROPPING
WELL BELOW ZERO IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES CLOSE TO OR COLDER THAN 20 BELOW. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA...BUT HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT WINDS WILL GO LIGHT UNDER A SNOW-INDUCED NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION LAYER.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY...HELPING TO GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD REACH 20 IN MOST AREAS...THEN 30 ON FRIDAY. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO HELP THE WARMING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. INFLUENCE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FRONT. NAM MODEL AS WELL AS SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING OF SNOW...SO HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO
MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THUS HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN AROUND
30.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MEAN LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. COLD AIR INTRUSION
BEGINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES RIDING
DOWN THRU NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP ON SUNDAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME QPF AS DYNAMICS INCREASE WITH BASE
OF UPPER TROF MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WL CARRY A SMALL
POP THRU MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THIS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH COLD TEMPERATURE TREND. WEAK WAA
FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS LATE TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION
QUICKLY MOVES IN TO END THE PERIOD.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
A PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND KOMA THROUGH 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SWITCHING TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY 06Z.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$