FXUS63 KOAX 141006
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
405 AM CST MON FEB 14 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT 08Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT ACCOMPANIED CLIPPER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED DOWN TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TO ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI BY
TONIGHT. THEREFORE TODAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND THE WEST END OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER AIR FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...THERE IS THE CAVEAT
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CREATE FOG AND STRATUS WHICH MAY IMPACT
THE TEMPERATURES.
LATE ON THURSDAY...CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS SWEEPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEFORMATION BAND OF THE CYCLONE MAY LINGER UP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A NEW CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF
RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
INITIALLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THEN IT
IS A WIND FCST WITH SOME FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH 06Z.
NORTHERLY H900 MILLIBAR WINDS OF 35 TO 50KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TO 20 TO 25KTS BY 15Z. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LLWS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY NOON AND SHIFT INTO MISSOURI BY
00Z...AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK
TRANSITION AND WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. INITIALLY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD 18Z...THEN BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS AFTER 00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS TOWARD KLNK THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SOUTH FLOW TONIGHT...CONTINUED MELTING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING FOG AFTER 00Z AT KOMA.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$