FXUS63 KOAX 142042
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
242 PM CST MON FEB 14 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WAS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS
ENVELOPING THE PAC NW REGION. MEANWHILE LATEST OBS/PWS CHART
INDICATING LLVL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NWD UP THRU TX/LA ON BACKSIDE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE GULF COAST. OVERALL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WRN TROF WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND SET UP SCENARIO FOR A
COLDER AIRMASS TO FILTER SWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. LEADING UP TO THAT...CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORM TEMPS WITH THURSDAY HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOW 70S OVER EXTREME SRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MOSTLY BE
CONCENTRATED IN THE SRN CWA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SNOW MELT
MAY POSSIBLY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION THURSDAY MORNING.
DEE
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCE/TYPE ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TRENDED WEAKER BY
GFS/ECMWF...WITH 12Z ECWMF THE WEAKEST YET. ALSO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT SEWD IS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH SO DROPPED SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NORTH AND BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. WITH
WEAKER PUSH TO FRONT...DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP OVER ERN
NEBRASKA/WRN IA ALREADY BY SATURDAY AS THROUGH IN SOUTHERN STREAM
BEGINS PROGRESSING EWD...AND LIFT CONTINUES OR REDEVELOPS SUN/SUN
NIGHT A SFC WAVE/LOW DEVELOPS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FORECAST
AREA. A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY WAS NOTED BETWEEN ABOVE TWO MODELS
WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS...AND THUS CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER. SO BECAUSE
OF THAT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BOOSTED TEMPERATURES SOME AS FRONT
LIFTS TOWARD OR POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ALSO KEPT/ADDED
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTH AS WARMER READINGS...AT LEAST
ALOFT...SPREAD NWD. IN FACT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THIS MIX COULD EXIST
OVER MOST/ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BUT KEPT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPE JUST ACROSS SOUTH. SINCE THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION THIS THROUGH COULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY...SPCLY PER 14/00Z ECWMF...LEFT MONDAY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING
WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN MEX.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND LLVL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME
PERIOD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SOME RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING HOURS AT KLNK AND PERHAPS EVEN KOMA. SOUTHWESTERLY
SFC WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BY SUNRISE SO ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
BK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$