FXUS63 KOAX 151004
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
404 AM CST TUE FEB 15 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD/FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE REGION MONDAY
HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTH FLOW HAS RESUMED AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER
OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND MENTIONED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY. HIGHER
LEVEL CLDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TODAY...MEANWHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
PERIODS OF SUNNY OR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS IN THE EAST SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...HOWEVER IN THE WRN FORECAST AREA
SHOULD TOP OUT FROM 55 TO 60. AGAIN TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDSHIFT AND MENTIONED IN
SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. A RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE THE CLOUDS/TEMPERATURE FORECAST
DIFFICULT FOR WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WRM...HOWEVER THESE MAY NOT MIX DOWN AND THERE MAY BE LOW CLDS
AROUND AS WELL. SFC DEWPOINTS RISE WELL INTO THE 30/40S DURING THE
DAY. FOR NOW HELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE EASTER COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S FARTHER WEST. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE CLOUDS AS IF THEY HANG ON IN THE EAST MAY HOLD IN THE
40S IN SOME SPOTS. DID MENTIONED FOG AND DRIZZLE AGAIN MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
50S/60S/70S. WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WITH IT. THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE
MID LEVEL LOW...ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA.
THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS BRING
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TRENDED WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA. PRESENT INDICATIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL...SO INCLUDED THIS MENTION. LEFT RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTH. THIS
IS A LONG WAY OUT...HOWEVER THERE WAS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
AF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD. THE 40 TO
45 KT LO LVL JET IS EXPECTED TO CONT INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS...AND
GIVE THE GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS...WILL CONT TO MENTION THE LO LVL
WIND SHEAR. MVFR CIGS DVLPS OVER SE KS SHLD STAY TO THE S AND E OF
THE TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD...BUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND
BEYOND...MAY SEE SOME STRATUS DVLP TO THE S AND MOV INTO OMA/LNK.
UNTIL THEN...JUST SOME HIGH LVL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL S
OR SE SFC WIND.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD