FXUS63 KOAX 160946
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST WED FEB 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND HAS EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH CALLS TO
POTTAWATTAMIE AND SHELBY COUNTY YIELDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG...AND
AREAS WHERE IT WAS O.K. VISIBILITIES COMING DOWN AT MILLARD THIS
PAST HOUR. WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG FARTHER
NORTHWEST. THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THESE MAY
HELP THE MORE MARGINAL AREAS.
THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE LOW SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HOLDS ON TO THEM INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE RUC LETS THEM GO BY 18Z. THE NAM/GFS HAVE
THESE LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SOME STRATUS
ALONG THE RIVER INTO IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS
CLOUDS WOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR NOW HAVE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE EAST AND LOWER 60S IN THE WEST. THIS EVENING SFC
DEWPOINTS INCREASE WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AT FALLS CITY
WITH FOG AND SOME DRIZZLE.
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA WILL
MEAN WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO MOVE OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND AROUND 70 AT LINCOLN. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY/S HIGHS
SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH SIMILAR READINGS FOR
SATURDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM ON THE 00Z RUNS FOR THE WEEKEND. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AIR WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
VLIFR VISBY AND CIGS OVER SE NEB AND SW IA EARLY THIS MRNG HAS
GENERALLY STAYED TO THE E OF THE LNK/OMA TERMINALS. WLD GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT THIS MRNG...BUT MAY SEEN AN MVFR VISBY FOR
HZ AT OMA THRU ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE WLD EXPECT HIGH LVL CLD COVER
THRU THE DAY WITH A SERLY LO LVL WIND. WL LIKELY SEE SOME IFR CIGS
MOV INTO OMA AND POSSIBLY LNK TONIGHT AS LO LVL MOISTURE INCREASES.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS THE LO LVL JET INCREASES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ067-068-
089>093.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD