FXUS63 KOAX 162027
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
227 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY...NORFOLK 72...OMAHA 69...LINCOLN 71. AS OF
NOW THINK THAT KOMA/KLNK HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RECORDS BROKEN.
HOWEVER QUESTION IS WILL WARM UP BE DELAYED DUE TO STRATUS/FOG
HANGING ON TOO LONG. AT ANY RATE...CWA WILL END UP IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTN. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE CLOSE...BUT GUT FEELING IS
SAYING YES WITH WAA BEING SO STOUT. TEMP CHANGE WILL ABRUPT THEN
HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
FROPA WILL BE DRY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S BEFORE REAL CHILL DOWN COMES THIS
WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FCST FOR EXTENDED PDS GIVEN QUITE NOTICEABLE
OVERALL DETAIL VARIANCE BETWEEN 06Z GFS VS 00Z ECM/CMC DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. MORE SPECIFIC...GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE SPEEDY WITH
WRN SHORTWAVE TROF...AS OPPOSED TO SLOWER ECM/CMC MOVING INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW TO APPROACH PCPN TYPE
WITH POPS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS/CRITICAL THKNS
PROGS PER ECM/CMC...APPEARS PCPN MIX MOST LIKELY DURING OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MOSTLY RA/SN MIX NORTH AND RA/FZRA SOUTH. HAVE DECIDED
TOWARD COMBINATION/BLEND OF ECM/CMC AND PLACED HIGHEST POPS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS FOR TEMPS...ONLY MADE HOURLY GRID
TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO MATCH ANTICIPATED PCPN TYPES. OTHERWISE HAVE
NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM GOING HIGHS/LOWS.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KOFK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KOMA AND KLNK AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AND MAY
CONTINUE TO 15Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE TONIGHT WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 00Z-08Z AT
KOFK/KLNK/KOMA.
SMITH
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$